Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Liberals face the proverbial uphill battle to claim bragging rights on April 28. It’s not Mount Everest, but it is a steep climb.
The district that makes up the riding has been a solid wall of blue since Guy Lauzon defeated Bob Kilger in 2004 and kept winning until he retired and his eager understudy Eric Duncan was handed the reins.
Actually, the writing was on the wall in 2000 when Kilger defeated Lauzon, then with the Alliance gang, by 2,962 votes. The Progressive Conservative candidate polled 3,625 votes. Combined, the two “Conservative” candidates attracted 663 more votes than Kilger.
The Alliance/PC marriage led to Lauzon’s upset in 2004 and it has never been the same for the Liberals.
For the local Liberals, there has always been next time, and with a better-operated campaign and a well-known candidate in city councillor Sarah Good, they feel next time has arrived.
However, the numbers don’t add up.
Good has a sizeable audience in Cornwall, but has a lower profile outside the city. It gets lower the farther west one goes.
In 2021, Duncan cruised to victory with a 16,812 lead over Liberal candidate Denis Moquin. That is sold landslide territory.
Duncan has held his own in Cornwall but it is in the rural parts of the riding where he has racked up big numbers. In many Dundas polls he has won by a three-to-one margin.
Dundas, and parts of North Stormont, where the Conservatives dominate, is, as the saying goes, a tough nut for the Liberals to crack.
There is no evidence of Tory voters in Dundas swinging to the Liberals.
Former Cornwall mayor Bernadette Clement, a long-time Liberal until she punched a Senate ticket as an Independent, has endorsed Good, not because she is a Liberal, but because she is a female. Sure. Of course.
One has to wonder just how important that endorsement means in a federal election. Clement, a popular councillor and mayor, ran twice against Lauzon. She finished 21,000 votes behind Lauzon in 2011 and barely beat upstart NDP candidate Mario Leclerc by 197 votes in a fight for second place.
In a 2015 rematch, with a better campaign team and the NDP Orange Wave in the rearview mirror, she did a lot better, but still finished 6,609 votes behind the incumbent. It total, she lost to Lauzon by a combined 28,962 votes.
The good news for Clement is that Senators are appointed, not elected.
Good should do better than former Lauzon and Duncan challengers. She’s smart, charming and full of energy.
She will attract around 2,000 NDP votes (2021 numbers) and could capture a couple of thousand soft Conservative votes.
Not enough. Duncan by 5,200 to 6,300 votes.
As the saying goes, this is Eric Duncan’s to lose.
APRIL 1975 – On April 3, a 10-inch snowstorm hammered the city and area. It was the worst April snowstorm in 10 years…Plans for the Gray’s Creek Conservation Area were rolled out. It called for a marina, picnic areas, trails and wildlife habitat…A product of the Cold War, the Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) in the city and across the country was mothballed by the government. The government said the organization had outlived it usefulness. Local coordinator George Tyo was out of a job…Saying the Raisin Region Conservation Authority (RRCA) had ignored its needs, Cornwall Township refused to pay its $15,139 assessment…Sod was turned for construction of Christ the King Roman Catholic Church in Eamer’s Corners…A private member’s bill put forth by Stormont MPP George Samis (NDP) called on the Conservative government to allow beer to be sold in small independent convenience stores. The union representing Beer Store workers was not impressed and opposed the bill…Cornwall native Jacques Leduc, a second-year law student, was voted president of the University of Ottawa student federation…York Steel had the winning bid – $945,870 – to supply steel for the new civic complex. Entwistle Construction of Cornwall had the winning bid of $116,850 to supply pile caps and grade beams…The Ontario Ministry of Environment was investigating complaints of a mysterious pollutant that was discolouring aluminum siding on homes on lower Brookdale Avenue…Sparks from a cutting torch damaged the Marlin Yachts building at Summerstown…Two weeks after Cornwall Royals were eliminated in the first round of the Quebec Junior Hockey League playoffs, Orval Tessier signed a new two-year contract as coach/general manager…Former Royal Gary MacGregor of the Chicago Cougars was named World Hockey Association rookie of the year. In his last season with the Royals, the Kingston native scored 100 regular season goals. He was drafted by Montreal Canadiens but chose to play in the WHA…
THIS AND THAT Why does a pro athlete who signs a multi-year contract worth millions need incentive clauses to do his job?…If nobody gets hurt in a hockey fight, as Don Cherry told us, why do scans on so many enforcers show brain damage? The latest is Chris Simon…A picture in the New York Post showed Russian players from the Pittsburgh Penquins and Washington Caps getting together at Evgeni Malkin‘s home the night before a game. Punch Imlach, who once benched a player for talking to an opposing player during the pre-game warm up, must have rolled over in his grave…It’s reasonable to think that Jagmeet Singh‘s days as federal leader of the NDP are numbered. Unfortunately for Singh, he had to work in Jack Layton‘s long shadow.
TRIVIA ANSWER Harold Jenkins changed his name to Conway Twitty. The singing legend performed at the old Willow Grove nightclub in Massena during the late 1950s.
QUOTED Get all the fools on your side and you can get elected to anything. – Frank Dane
