Anyone who has ever owned a business knows that uncertainty is bad for the bottom line and the owner’s mental health.
Entrepreneurs know first-hand the merits of the adage “fail to plan, plan to fail.” Successful operations are guided by forecasts, strategies, budgets based on hard numbers.
But the best laid plans are useless when detrimental, uncontrollable and unforeseen problems crop up.
Remember the unpredictability everyone was subject to in the early days of the COVID-19? Well, in many respects, it is déjà vu all over again now that we are in the midst of a trade war with the United States.
It is impossible for anyone to predict what Donald Trump will do next, and how any further crazy actions will affect us.
While workers worry about job security, many companies are in limbo as they try to figure the financial fallout of tariffs. When in doubt, employers will hold off hiring new employees, delay investments in new equipment and cut costs wherever they can.
Retailers must try to calculate if they can pass additional costs onto customers, absorb the higher costs themselves, or do a little bit of both.
When the future is murky, consumers will instinctively hesitate on making major purchases.
As the saying goes, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
When rolling out their seasonal inventories, retailers usually have a good idea what will sell. But this year, who knows? Will tariffs make some popular products unaffordable? Will the “Shop Canadian” movement mean that many American-made items will simply gather dust?
On the flip side, the weak Canadian dollar could encourage Americans to vacation north of the 49th Parallel, where the air is fresh, the water is clear, most of our leaders are sane and eggs are safe and cheap.
Alas, the trade war will force people to make sacrifices, on so many levels. For example, craft beer prices may rise because aluminum shipped to the States, where most beer cans are made, are subject to an export tax, and the finished products are taxed when they enter Canada.
Those who appreciate a craft beer may face tough choices as they face what could be a long and dry summer. Buy less beer or bite the bullet and pay a little more in order to support small breweries? These are indeed trying times.
Hopefully, consumers will be patriotic and will be ready to shell out a few more dollars if it means ensuring the survival of local businesses.
Owning your own business can be rewarding, and not only in a financial sense. You can be your own boss, although the customer is always right and sometimes it can feel like the business owns you. There is great satisfaction to be derived from the simple process of launching a business, because to do so one most overcome all sorts of fears. There is the natural fear of failure, of the unknown and potential financial problems.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
That attitude has obviously been adopted by numerous enterprising people in our part of the world.
The number of businesses Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry and Prescott-Russell rose between 2022 and 2024, according to figures contained in the Eastern Ontario Training Board’s Local Labour Market Plan report. The number of businesses in SDG in 2024 was 10,764, compared to 9,942 in 2022. Meanwhile, in Prescott-Russell the number of businesses went from 8,811 in 2022 to 9,691 in 2024.
Time, and factors beyond our control, will tell what those numbers will look like at the end of 2025.
What do you think? Let us know at rmahoney@seawaynews.media
