Although Premier Doug Ford wants Donald Trump to be the only issue in the early Ontario election campaign, the US President is not the only topic that should be on electors’ minds.
Ford tries to justify holding a vote a year before the scheduled date by maintaining that his Conservatives need an even larger majority to deal with the threat of trade tariffs. The menace from the south is indeed a serious problem.
Yet, there are other matters that must be addressed.
For starters, the government’s acceleration of a law permitting beer, wine and ready-made cocktails to be sold in convenience stores will cost about $612 million, the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) has found.
The FAO estimates that expanding the beverage alcohol marketplace in Ontario will result in a net cost to the province of $1.4 billion over the term of the Early Implementation Agreement, which expires December 31, 2030. Of the $1.4 billion net cost, the FAO estimates that $817 million relates to the planned expansion of the beverage alcohol marketplace starting on January 1, 2026, and $612 million relates to the decision to accelerate that expansion to begin in 2024.
The projected $1.4 billion net cost consists of $489 million in support to The Beer Store, $1,280 million in lower tax revenues, primarily for beer, wine and spirits sales at stores not subject to these taxes, and $14 million in other expenses. These costs are partially offset by a $353 million increase in LCBO net income, largely related to increased wholesale activity.
The FAO says the actual financial cost to the province will depend on how retailers and consumers respond to the expanded marketplace. The cost would be lower than projected if the marketplace expansion results in higher per-capita alcohol consumption. The cost would be higher if more grocery and convenience stores participate and capture a larger than expected market share, or consumers shift their purchases to new retailers more quickly than projected. After accounting for these and other factors, the FAO estimates that the financial cost to the province could range from $529 million to $1.9 billion to December 31, 2030.
The numbers are indeed (sorry) sobering, aren’t they?
The huge cost of the government’s liberalization of alcohol sales provides more ammunition for critics who have lambasted the Tories for making Ontarians’ lives miserable, and more expensive.
Not surprisingly, the election call was preceded by a flurry of funding approvals.
Take January 27, before the election was finally officially called, when the government suddenly found money to deal with long-standing issues.
For example, it announced it was investing $1.3 billion to build 30 new schools and 15 school expansions across Ontario, creating more than 25,000 new student spaces and more than 1,600 new licensed child care spaces. The investments address critical needs in growing areas of the province to provide students with modern learning spaces to help them achieve success.
The same day, the government said it is investing $325 million in critical water infrastructure projects to help build up to 107,000 new homes across the province. The funding is being delivered through the Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund (HEWSF), which helps municipalities build, repair, rehabilitate and expand critical drinking water, wastewater and stormwater infrastructure.
Across the province, money was being allocated for all sorts of initiatives covering addiction services, emergency management, skills development, transit, economic development and nuclear energy.
Wait, there’s more!
“Ontario has begun flowing up to $75.5 million to municipalities in order to help them wind down encampments in public spaces by creating more emergency shelter spaces and affordable housing units. These accommodations will provide vulnerable people with appropriate short- and long-term housing alternatives to encampments and help restore safety and order to Ontario’s parks and other public spaces.”
And, the biggie was the commitment to spend $1.8 billion “to connect two million more people to a publicly funded family doctor or primary care team within four years, which will achieve the government’s goal of connecting everyone in the province to a family doctor or primary care team.”
So, what took them so long? The Conservatives have enjoyed a massive majority at Queen’s Park since 2018. Now they are throwing “historic” sums of our money at problems that ought to have been tackled years ago.
Most reasonable people would agree that an early election call is a demonstration of good old-fashioned political opportunism. The Conservatives are riding high in the polls; they want to get a stronger grip on power before any wrongdoing is exposed following the RCMP’s investigation into the Greenbelt fiasco; the Tories have lots of money to spend on the campaign.
Now, before you get overly cynical, here are a few words from Nolan Quinn, who will likely be easily re-elected as Conservative MPP in Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry. “Despite what the opposition is saying, I can tell you that this is not what I, nor my colleagues at Queen’s Park, wanted at this point in our mandate. The risks to our economy, our jobs, and our prosperity, posed by the threats of President Trump, make this election absolutely necessary.”
All right, then. So can we blame Trump for forcing us to trudge out into the middle of a brutal winter to cast our ballots? What about Justin Trudeau? He is not off the hook yet. We can keep faulting Trudeau, because after his critics demanded he step down, he did just that, and now he is being criticized for creating a leadership void, which must be filled by the Conservatives, who must get even more power in the provincial legislature.
Thankfully, we have politicians like Nolan Quinn to help connect the dots for us. The complicated world of politics can be confusing for the average person, which may explain why increased access to alcohol has become so popular in Ontario.
We have an election campaign on our hands, whether we like it or not. There are many issues that must be debated, and it is not just about Trump.
