April 10, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Conservative candidate and incumbent Eric Duncan posted a list of alarming crime statistics on social media, claiming that crime has “skyrocketed” under the Liberal government. Citing only Statistics Canada as his source, Duncan claimed violent crime is up 50%, homicides 28%, sexual assaults 75%, and auto thefts up 46% nationally — a whopping 167% in Ontario. He also claimed gun crime rose 116%, extortion 357%, and gang murders have “nearly doubled.”
But when we actually turn to Stats Canada — the very source Duncan references — we find that with one exception, none of his numbers matches. The most accurate figure is the 357% increase in extortion, a crime that has surged due to the rise of online threats and sextortion scams. Stats Canada confirms that extortion cases have grown fivefold over the last decade, fueled mainly by online activity. But nearly every other statistic Duncan offered is either exaggerated, cherry-picked from a different source, or appears to be an alternative fact.
Take homicides, for instance. Duncan claims a 28% increase, but Statistics Canada data shows the rate rose from 1.68 to 1.94 per 100,000 people between 2015 — the year the Liberal government came to power — and 2023. That’s about a 15% increase, not 28%. As a percentage, it might seem alarming, but on a graph spanning the last 60 years, this uptick is a bare blip compared to the historic highs of the early 1990s, when homicide rates routinely exceeded 2.5 per 100,000. It’s still a serious issue, but a far cry from the crisis portrayed in Duncan’s post.
Duncan claimed sexual assaults are up 75%, but that appears to be an overstatement. According to Statistics Canada, the rate of police-reported sexual assaults rose from 58 per 100,000 population in 2014 to 92 in 2022, an increase of approximately 59%. In 2023, the rate increased again slightly to 93 per 100,000. While the trend is certainly concerning, experts point out that much of the increase may reflect a greater willingness among survivors to report these crimes, rather than a surge in incidents themselves.
#MeToo, better public awareness, and broader definitions of sexual violence have reduced stigma and empowered more survivors to report — a critical step toward justice and prevention. In this context, a rising rate of reported assaults can also be seen as progress — reflecting greater awareness, reduced stigma, and a growing willingness to report a long-underreported issue.
Duncan claimed gang-related murders have “nearly doubled,” which is consistent with Statistics Canada figures showing an increase from 76 in 2015 to 144 in 2022. However, it’s important to consider that Canada’s population grew by over 11% during that time. When adjusted for population, the gang-related homicide rate rose from approximately 0.21 to 0.36 per 100,000 people — a significant increase, but not as stark as the raw numbers suggest. In 2023, the number declined to 124, indicating a modest drop after the peak.
Experts attribute the earlier rise in gang-related homicides to a range of factors, including the increased smuggling of illegal firearms — particularly handguns from the U.S. — escalating turf wars over drug trafficking routes, and organized crime expanding into legitimate industries. However, the decline in 2023 suggests the situation is more dynamic than Duncan’s alarmist framing implies. Rather than a straightforward surge, the data reflects a complex and evolving landscape that requires careful analysis, not oversimplified talking points.
Some of Duncan’s numbers appear to be lifted from reports by the Fraser Institute, a conservative think tank. For example, the Fraser Institute reported a 43.8% rise in violent crime between 2014 and 2022 — which is close to Duncan’s 50%, but still not quite there.
The Fraser Institute’s report titled Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the United States indicates that from 2014 to 2022, Canada’s violent crime rate increased by 43.8%, while the U.S. saw a 5.3% rise during the same period. However, Chris D. Lewis, former Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP), has expressed skepticism regarding the accuracy and completeness of U.S. crime data, particularly when used in comparisons with Canadian statistics.
He highlighted that Canada’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system is mandatory and standardized across all police agencies, ensuring consistent and comprehensive data collection. In contrast, the U.S. counterpart is voluntary, with only about 40% of police departments reporting data in 2021. This discrepancy raises concerns about the validity of direct comparisons between the two countries’ crime rates. Lewis emphasized the importance of understanding these limitations to avoid misleading conclusions about crime trends.
In other cases, Duncan’s numbers seem to lack a clear source. The claim that gun crime is up 116%? Nowhere to be found in recent Stats Canada reports. According to Statistics Canada, the rate of firearm-related violent crime in Canada increased by approximately 29% from 2015 to 2023, rising from 28.6 to 36.9 incidents per 100,000 population. Moreover, the rate of firearm-related violent crime declined by 1.7% from 2022 to 2023, indicating a recent downward trend.
Auto theft up 167% in Ontario? Not even close. Between 2015 and 2023, the rate of police-reported motor vehicle thefts in Canada increased from approximately 221 to 286 incidents per 100,000 population, representing a 29.4% rise. While this uptick is notable, it’s important to recognize that the 2023 rate remains about half of what it was 25 years earlier.
Nonetheless, there is room for improvement. Canada is now a key source of stolen luxury vehicles, which are exported to markets like West Africa and the Middle East for up to twice their Canadian value. INTERPOL warns these vehicles help fund organized crime, with smugglers exploiting Canada’s export system.
This is where nuance matters. Yes, crime has increased in recent years — particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic and recession. But it’s also important to acknowledge that overall crime in Canada is still historically low. The total crime rate remains well below its peak in the early 1990s, and the national homicide rate dropped in 2023 after four years of increase.
Short-term trends can fluctuate with social and economic pressures — such as inflation, housing instability, addiction, and a strained justice system. A nuanced, honest conversation would acknowledge that no party has a magic wand to fix this. Instead, solutions require investment in social programs, law enforcement resources, and judicial reform — not fear-based politicking.
Perhaps most telling is that when people in the comments of Duncan’s post asked for sources, none was given beyond the vague mention of Stats Canada. One local lawyer wrote in the comment section, “I’m on the Statistics Canada site and I cannot find any data to support what you’re saying. Can you please state your sources? Then we can confirm for ourselves.” Mr. Duncan, if you’re going to claim crime is “skyrocketing,” you owe it to Canadians to show your references. We all want safer communities. But making Canada safer won’t come from distorted stats or social media soundbites. It starts with the truth — even when the truth is complicated.
For example, Duncan’s call to “fix the broken bail system” simplifies a complex issue. While the federal government sets bail laws through the Criminal Code, bail is administered by provincial courts and judges. Ottawa can tighten provisions—as it did with Bill C-48—but meaningful reform also requires provincial action and funding. Legal experts caution against overreaction, noting that bail is a constitutional right designed to balance public safety with the presumption of innocence.
In many cases, delays, underfunding, and lack of community supports—such as housing, mental health care, and monitoring services—are greater contributors to system failures than the laws themselves. Ottawa can play a constructive role by increasing funding for prosecutors, courts, and social supports that improve how bail decisions are made and enforced.
Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre have unveiled parts of their crime platforms. Carney’s plan, announced April 10, includes hiring 1,000 new RCMP and CBSA officers, tougher bail and sentencing laws for violent offenders, a revived firearm buyback, enhanced border security, and supports for youth crime prevention, mental health, and online safety. In contrast, Poilievre proposes a “Three Strikes” law with automatic 10-year to life sentences for repeat offenders, mandatory life terms for gun smugglers and drug traffickers, and a repeal of Liberal justice reforms—though similar “Three Strikes” laws in the U.S. have led to prison overcrowding, racial disparities, and harsh penalties for minor crimes, without clear evidence of effectiveness.
As Canadians weigh opposing crime strategies—prevention and support versus mandatory sentencing—facts, not fear, must guide policy. The failures of the U.S. “Three Strikes” law show the risks of emotion-driven responses. Conservatives want to “Axe the Tax,” but some seem just as eager to axe the facts. Crime is complex, and Canadians deserve evidence, not exaggeration.
